Balancing Factions: Putin has consistently employed a strategy of balancing diverse factions within the Russian establishment, deftly maneuvering them against each other to maintain his own strong hold on power. This approach effectively prevents any single faction from gaining excessive influence.
Asserting Authority: When Prigozhin expanded his public criticisms to encompass the regime as a whole, including veiled references to Putin himself, the Russian President took decisive action to reaffirm his authority. This underscores Putin's willingness to tolerate some level of internal rivalry among his subordinates but not outright challenges to his leadership.
Utilization of Proxy Forces: It is likely that Putin will continue to leverage militias such as Wagner as proxy forces, especially in regions like Syria and Africa. These groups can further Russian interests without drawing substantial public attention or posing a direct threat to Putin's rule.
Public Sentiment and Nationalism: While the majority of Russians initially did not support the invasion of Ukraine, their stance has evolved. Most now endorse Russia's efforts to prevent defeat in the conflict, driven by a sense of patriotism and the apprehension that a resounding loss could precipitate regime collapse and internal turmoil.
Unpredictability Persists: The future of Russia's actions in Ukraine remains highly uncertain, with Putin's thought process and subsequent moves proving elusive to predict. The evolving situation on the ground will greatly influence the course of events.
Opposition to Putin: Despite some dissatisfaction within the Russian elite, organized opposition to Putin remains relatively weak. Even those initially displeased with the invasion of Ukraine are cautious about risking regime collapse and the potential ensuing chaos.
Economic and Political Dependence: Russia's increasing economic and political reliance on China is expected, owing to Western sanctions. Nevertheless, this partnership is not tantamount to an alliance, and Russia intends to maintain a certain level of autonomy in its foreign relations.
Multipolar Order: Russia, along with China and other nations, is actively working towards establishing a new multipolar world order that is less dominated by the West. The BRICS group serves as an alternative platform for these countries to coordinate their efforts.
Ukraine Communique: The absence of Putin and Xi at the New Delhi G20 summit, coupled with disagreements over the Ukraine-related portions of the joint communique, highlights the ongoing tensions between Russia and Western nations regarding Ukraine and related matters.
In summary, the political landscape in Russia remains dynamic, and its future trajectory will be shaped by a multifaceted interplay of domestic and international factors, with the ongoing Ukraine conflict occupying a central role.